Even though BTC was able to recover about $30K, it’s important to note that on a more macro scale, the situation remains the same. The cryptocurrency is still trading within a range between $28K and $31K.
The Daily Chart
Based on the price structure of the last two days, a bullish push towards the $35K level and the 50-day moving average could be in play.
However, BTC seems likely to be rejected from one of the mentioned resistance levels (red boxes) on the chart and fall towards the $28K-$30K range with a possibility of retesting the $24K demand zone.
On the other hand, if the price breaks these resistance levels, the next target would be the significant intersection of the $40K supply zone and the 100-day moving average. However, a premature rejection from the $35K area would be the more probable scenario, given the massive bearish momentum over the last few months.
The 4-Hour Chart
On the 4-hour timeframe, the price is still trapped between the $28K and $31K range. A fake bearish breakout occurred last week, which could have been a bear trap and a stop hunt of the long positions. The price is currently approaching the $31K level with momentum and could break above it initiating a bullish pullback towards the $35K level.
However, the RSI indicator is signaling that the price is overbought in this timeframe, indicating that a reversal before a bullish breakout is still possible. A bullish push to $35K before a bearish leg towards $24K is still the more probable scenario in this timeframe.
This chart consists of the UTXO value bands (more than 10K BTC) from CryptoQuant and Bitcoin’s price. This metric tracks the accumulations and distribution behavior of big players.
When the metric increases, it is a proxy of accumulations among larger investors, while a decrease in the metric indicates a transparent distribution.
As is evident in the chart, the market is currently in a heavy accumulation phase. The momentum is much more significant than what it was back in May 2021 when the massive crash occurred, dropping Bitcoin to $29K after registering a new all-time high at around $65K.
On the other hand, the UTXO Count (more than 10K BTC) has soared during the recent blood bath. The next significant bullish move will probably initiate when this mid-term accumulation/capitulation ends.
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Cryptocurrency charts by TradingView.