Bitcoin Price Analysis: BTC Unable to Push Above $43.5K as Bears Eye $40K Next


After rebounding from the substantial support region around the 100-day moving average, the price initiated a retracement towards the resistance range of $43,578-$45,606.

However, the momentum has weakened, suggesting the potential for a new bearish leg.

Technical Analysis

By Shayan

The Daily Chart

A thorough examination of the daily chart reveals that following Bitcoin’s recent bounce from a crucial support region, which includes the 100-day moving average aligned with the $40K level, the price embarked on a bullish retracement with the aim of reclaiming the yearly high at $48K.

Upon reaching a pivotal resistance region, defined by the existing fair value gap (FVG) within the $43,578 and $45,606 thresholds, Bitcoin’s bullish momentum faltered.

This led to a phase of slight consolidation with minimal volatility. This particular price range has the potential to act as a barrier against further buying pressure, potentially prompting a reversal towards the substantial 100-day moving average. However, a successful breach above this critical range could set the stage for another attempt to overcome the significant $48K resistance.

btc_price_chart_0502241
Source: TradingView

The 4-Hour Chart

An analysis of the 4-hour chart illustrates the extension of the bearish movement towards the static support zone, encompassing $39K and the significant 0.5 level of Fibonacci retracement.

However, prevailing buying pressure ultimately facilitated a bullish reversal, propelling the price towards a crucial resistance marked by the lower boundary of the ascending flag.

Despite this bullish reversal, recent price action and low volatility indicate a heightened potential for a renewed bearish move in the coming days. Therefore, in the event of a successful pullback, the market should brace for a mid-term descent towards the $38K significant support region. It’s essential for traders to manage risk by considering an alternative scenario where an unexpected surge above the flag’s lower boundary occurs, leading to a renewed bullish movement.

btc_price_chart_0502242
Source: TradingView

On-chain Analysis

By Shayan

The current market landscape suggests a quest for trends, yet significant players have displayed a notable sense of stillness in recent weeks. Examining their behavior becomes crucial in discerning prevailing trends, a task facilitated by the Binary Coin Days Destroyed (CDD) metric chart featuring a 30-day moving average.

Binary CDD operates as a binary value, denoted as ‘1’ when the Supply Adjusted Coin Days Destroyed exceeds the average and ‘0’ otherwise. This metric serves as an indicator of whether the actions of long-term holders surpass or lag behind the average.

As depicted in the chart, Binary CDD has undergone a significant uptrend, coinciding with a notable surge in Bitcoin’s price, indicative of heightened activity among smart money. Long-term holders may perceive this uptrend as an opportune moment to distribute their assets and adjust their exposure to the market.

Consequently, the market may be on the brink of a short-term correction stage, retracing back towards the $38K region. Continued monitoring of this metric will be instrumental in gauging potential shifts in market dynamics.

btc_binary_cdd_chart_0502241
Source: CryptoQuant

 

 

SPECIAL OFFER (Sponsored)

Binance Free $100 (Exclusive): Use this link to register and receive $100 free and 10% off fees on Binance Futures first month (terms).

Disclaimer: Information found on CryptoPotato is those of writers quoted. It does not represent the opinions of CryptoPotato on whether to buy, sell, or hold any investments. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use provided information at your own risk. See Disclaimer for more information.

Cryptocurrency charts by TradingView.



Source link

Leave a Comment