Halfway to Bitcoin Euphoria, Are Retail Investors Here Yet?

Retail interest in the cryptocurrency market appears to be ramping up following Bitcoin’s rise to $70,000 and above.

According to a Tuesday tweet thread, Ki Young Ju, founder and CEO of on-chain intelligence platform CryptoQuant, believes the crypto market is likely halfway to a Bitcoin Euphoria because half of the retail crowd has arrived.

Halfway to Bitcoin Euphoria

Euphoria refers to a period in the bull cycle when market participants embrace greed and Bitcoin’s rally becomes overheated. During this time, retail speculative activity and enthusiasm for the crypto market peaks, indicating the active participation of this cohort of investors.

The rise in retail interest is often evident in Google search trends for “Bitcoin” and an increase in crypto apps download, as there is no specific indicator to monitor retail participation in the market. Analysts believe new retail investors joining the crypto market as it heats up will increase the rally’s momentum and push it to new highs.

Ju arrived at the conclusion that the market may be halfway to euphoria by observing several metrics, including the BTC Unrealized Profit Ratio for Retail Cohorts, the total supply of BTC that has been inactive for a year, and the number of withdrawing transactions on the Ethereum network.

The CryptoQuant founder admitted that retail on-chain activities, as shown by the metrics, do not indicate a cyclical top and that BTC is still in its price discovery phase.

How Many Retail Investors Are Here?

Ju’s analysis was criticized by some market participants. Some believe the BTC Unrealized Profit Ratio for Retail Cohorts chart is not an accurate measure of the percentage of the retail crowd that has arrived. While concurring with Ju’s claims that the market is halfway to euphoria, they insisted that between 10% and 20% of retail participants are here.

“Can’t argue with that. It’s hard to know how “many” retail investors joined using this data. This is more akin to measuring the intensity of the retail cycle through retail on-chain activities,” Ju explained.

Meanwhile, Google searches and crypto app downloads show the retail crowd is just stepping in. The former sits at 53, halfway from the peak of 100 reached on May 21, while the latter has slightly recovered from levels CryptoPotato reported in December 2023. Coinbase has moved to No. 13 among consumer finance apps on Apple’s App Store rankings.